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The challenges swiss manufacturing companies face in achieving industry 4.0 digital transformation and the role of exponential technologies. It discusses the main characteristics of industry 4.0, including vertical networking, horizontal integration, through-engineering, and exponential technologies. The document also presents solutions for swiss manufacturing companies to manage the transition, such as through-engineering solutions and exponential technologies solutions.
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Industry 4. Challenges and solutions for the digital transformation and use of exponential technologies
About the study This study sets out the key challenges Switzerland’s manufacturing companies face in achieving the digital transformation of the industry and benefitting from exponential technologies. It focuses on the Swiss mechanical and electrical engineering, and metalworking industries, and the chemical and construction sectors. Between March and August 2014, more than 50 manufacturing companies operating in Switzerland completed questionnaires and took part in personal interviews. The companies taking part included among others ABB, agta record, Alstom, Autoneum, Bühler, Burkhalter, Burckhardt Compression, Cicor, Eaton, Faulhaber Minimotor, Fisba Optik, GF Machining Solutions, Gurit, Hilti, IHI Ionbond, Jungheinrich, Kaba, Meyer Burger, Mikron, Rapid, Reichle & De-Massari, Rieter, Siemens, Sonova, Trisa and Walter Meier. Introduction and Executive summary 1 What is industry 4.0? 3 Definition and development 3 Main characteristics 6 Where is Switzerland in the industry 4.0 process? 9 Competitiveness 9 Opportunities and risks 11 The question of resources 13 Potential for individual business segments 15 Impetus from exponential technologies 17 Industry 4.0 solutions 22 Vertical networking 22 Horizontal integration 23 Through-engineering 24 Exponential technologies 25 Endnotes 26 Contacts 27
Definition and development The term industry 4.0 refers to a further developmental stage in the organisation and management of the entire value chain process involved in manufacturing industry. Another term for this process is the ’fourth industrial revolution’. The concept of industry 4.0 is widely used across Europe, particularly in Germany’s manufacturing sector. In the United States and the English-speaking world more generally, some commentators also use the terms the ’internet of things’, the ’internet of everything’ or the ’industrial internet’. What all these terms and concepts have in common is the recognition that traditional manufacturing and production methods are in the throes of a digital transformation. For some time now, industrial processes have increasingly embraced modern information technology (IT), but the most recent trends go beyond simply the automation of production that has, since the early 1970s, been driven by developments in electronics and IT (see Chart 1). “The question arises with industry 4. of whether it is an evolution or a revolution.“ Robert Rudolph, Swissmem, Head of Training and Innovation First programmable logic control system 1969 First assembly line 1870 First mechanical weaving loom 1784 Industry 4. Industry 3. Industry 1. Industry 2. Degree of complexity End of 18th century Beginning of 20th century Beginning of 1970s of 20th century Today Chart 1. Definition of industry 4.0^1 1st industrial revolution Through introduction of mechanical production facilities with the help of water and steam power 2nd industrial revolution Through introduction of mass production with the help of electrical energy 3rd industrial revolution Through application of electronics and IT to further automate production 4th industrial revolution On the basis of cyber-phys- ical production systems (CPPS), merging of real and virtual worlds The widespread adoption by manufacturing industry and traditional production operations of information and communications technology (ICT) is increasingly blurring the boundaries between the real world and the virtual world in what are known as cyber-physical production systems (CPPSs). CPPSs are online networks of social machines that are organised in a similar way to social networks. Simply put, they link IT with mechanical and electronic components that then communicate with each other via a network. Radio frequency identification (RFID) technology, which has been in use since 1999, was a very early form of this technology. Industry 4.0 Challenges and solutions for the digital transformation and use of exponential technologies 3
Research has shown that Moore’s law – which states that the capacity of microchips, bandwidth and computers doubles every 18 months, representing exponential growth – also applies to other technological developments.^4 3D printing, sensor technology, artificial intelligence, robotics, drones and nanotechnology are just a few examples of exponentially growing technologies that are radically changing industrial processes, accelerating them and making them more flexible. Many of these technologies are not new and were, in fact, ’invented’ some 20 or 30 years ago. However, the recent massive boost in computing power (Moore’s law) and the reduction in cost, along with miniaturisation, now make them suitable for industrial use. New technologies can be overrated and can cause concern, because of the slow development curve in absolute terms at the beginning. When the exponential development takes off, the influence of such technologies is often underestimated and disruptive market changes are missed. Several of these exponential technologies will be leaving their linear growth paths in the coming years and we are expecting exponential growth. This exponential growth will fundamentally shape industry 4.0. “Using 3D printing for rapid prototyping is like using a computer to write letters. While it is certainly useful, it significantly underutilises the true potential of the technology. When the experience changes, there will be rapid adoption.“ Dr. Girish Nadkarni, ABB Venture Capitals, Managing Director Speed of technological change Exponentialtechnologies Watson 3D printing Google Glass Auto- motive based on digital Capsule endos- copy Slingshot water purifier Nano- Printing Self- Driving cars Crowd- funding (^) Matternet (drones) Robotic surgical systems Tele- presence robots Global connecti- vity Biotech NeurotechNanotech New energy & sustainability ICT & mobile technologySensoring 3D printing Artificial intelligence RoboticsDrones From linear to exponential growth trajectory Technological development Moore’s Law: the power of chips, bandwith and computers doubles appr. every 18 months The human factor Technological development feeds and enables various trends in society: Democratisation, social connection, DIY, Decentralisation Chart 3. Exponential technologies^3 Exponentially growing technologies will be the key to the transformation to industry 4.0 (see Chart 3). Industry 4.0 Challenges and solutions for the digital transformation and use of exponential technologies 5
Main characteristics The following four main characteristics of industry 4.0 demonstrate the huge capacity that industry and traditional manufacturing have for change: vertical networking of smart production systems, horizontal integration via a new generation of global value chain networks, through-engineering across the entire value chain and the impact of exponential technologies (see Chart 4).
ex po ne nt ial te ch no log ies Hor izo nta lin te gr at io n via an ew ge ne ra tio n of glob alv alu ec ha in ne tw or ks Th (^) r (^) o (^) u g h - e n g (^) i n e e r i n g ac r o (^) s s t h e e n t i r e (^) v a l u (^) e (^) c h a i n 1 2 3 4 Chart 4. The four characteristics of industry 4.0^5 6
Our survey and personal interviews show that the digital transformation to industry 4.0 in Switzerland is making partial progress. This transformation is not only influencing companies’ competitiveness and opening up new opportunities and risks, it is also highlighting resource issues, identifying key future potential for individual business segments and facilitating new manufacturing technologies. Competitiveness The majority of the manufacturing companies surveyed agree that the digital transformation to industry 4.0 could boost Swiss industry’s global competitiveness (see Chart 5): 40% of respondents strongly agreed and a further 44% agreed that this was the case. In interviews, representatives of manufacturing industry stressed the vital importance of industry 4.0 and emphasised that it would become even more important in future. Asked about the extent to which Swiss manufacturing companies are already feeling the impact of the digital transformation to industry 4.0, respondents gave varied responses. Just over one-third said their company was either not feeling the impact (20%) or feeling only a slight impact (16%); just under a third gave a neutral response (28%), while the remaining third were already feeling the impact strongly (24%) or very strongly (12%) (see Chart 6). Chart 5. Swiss manufacturing industry and industry 4. [Scale 1-5] 8% 1 2 3 4 5 44% 40% Completely disagree Completely agree Chart 6. Swiss companies and industry 4. [Scale 1-5] 20% (^) 16% 28% 24% 12% 1 2 3 4 5 No impact Very substantial impact Question: Do you believe that the digital transformation to industry 4.0 could boost Switzerland’s global competitiveness? Question: How strongly is your company feeling the impact of the digital transformation to industry 4.0? Industry 4.0 Challenges and solutions for the digital transformation and use of exponential technologies 9
Question: To what extent is your company already integrating customers’ needs and/ or preferences in its development and production processes, for example through data exchange directly with machines? Opportunities and risks The digital transformation to industry 4.0 brings with it both new opportunities and new risks. Opportunities for flexible customer integration and for boosting quality and efficiency The companies taking part in the survey see greater scope to integrate their customers’ needs and preferences into the development and production process as a major new opportunity. Some individual manufacturing companies are already strongly integrating their customers’ needs and preferences in this way (17%) or very strongly (25%), but almost one-third (29%) are not doing so at all (see Chart 8). Customisation is a global trend and is likely to spread even more rapidly across manufacturing industry in future. Customers increasingly want to determine how their products are designed and made, and will be having an input into development and production processes at an early stage. The scope for networking represented by industry 4.0 offers interesting opportunities for manufacturing companies to make more extensive, more efficient, more intelligent and more flexible use of this trend than they are currently able to. However, one major challenge posed by industry 4.0 will be managing the large quantities of data that are generated, for example, by analysing production data and coordinating the findings with customer information systems. Swiss manufacturing companies are using this ability to analyse big data to different degrees. The majority of those questioned do not yet analyse their machinery and sensor data, for example to remedy defects in production or to enhance quality (see Chart 9). Question: To what extent is your company already making use of the opportunity to analyse machine data, for example to avoid defects in the production process? “The greater possibilities of new technologies allow to be even more customer-centred and always to start from what customers need.“ Dr. Andreas Häberli, KABA, CTO, Group Innovation Management “Demand for customisation (or customer-specific adaptations) continues to grow. Industry 4. will allow even more customisation options in the future.“ Dr. Kurt Kaltenegger, ABB Venture Capitals, Head of Technology Chart 8. Integrating customers [Scale 1-5] 29% 1 2 3 4 5 25% 25% 17% Not at all (^) stronglyVery Chart 9. Resource efficiency [Scale 1-5] 29% 1 2 3 4 5 25% (^) 21% 8% 17% Not at all (^) stronglyVery Industry 4.0 Challenges and solutions for the digital transformation and use of exponential technologies 11
Question: Do you think that the digital transformation to industry 4.0 could further increase cyber risk for manufacturing companies? This indicates that most of the manufacturing companies surveyed have yet to position themselves to make use of the opportunities offered by industry 4.0 in this area. Among other things, analysis of big data can enable managers to identify defects, faults and shortcomings in the production process at an early stage, optimise automation processes and carry out trend analyses, use resources more efficiently and carry out predictive maintenance. However, as well as offering these advantages in terms of the scope to analyse big data and to boost quality and efficiency, the digital transformation to industry 4.0 also brings with it some non-negligible risks. Risks to data security The ’internet of things, services, data and people’ also opens up new avenues for data theft, industrial espionage and attacks by hackers. A majority of survey respondents believe that the level of cyber risk could increase strongly (36%) or very strongly (48%) as a result of industry 4.0 (see Chart 10). All respondents believe that the potential for cyber risk will increase. Cyber-attacks and viruses can have a devastating impact on industry 4.0, potentially bringing networked and smart production systems to a standstill at substantial cost. In our interviews, most representatives of manufacturing companies emphasised, however, that these risks could probably be managed through tailored risk management and an appropriate security strategy. Many cited modular safeguards/solutions, decentralised structures and limited access rights as sensible measures in this context. They also thought that developments in cyber security would keep pace with the ever changing nature of cyber- threats. A number of respondents also stressed the need for new and, where appropriate, binding cyber security standards. However, some manufacturing companies or business segments are having to install completely new security systems. Both software and hardware are affected, with the latter slightly less affected. The priority for manufacturing companies is not only to prevent cyber-attacks but also – and particularly – to learn how to deal with them, since respondents believe that cyber risk will be as much of a problem in future as it is now. IP security will inevitably become more difficult (for example in the spare parts business). “Online monitoring is very important with 3D printing. It’s currently possible to identify faults only after production. Online monitoring enables problems to be reported and rectified during the manufacturing process, meaning that manufactured products are fault-free.“ Raphael Urech, Alstom Schweiz, Knowledge Manager Hybrid Parts, Thermal Power Sector “The cyber risk is not necessarily higher in an industry 4. environment. New cyber security will be introduced at the same pace as industry 4.0 applications. Technology development goes hand in hand with the development of cyber security systems.“ Dr. Kurt Kaltenegger, ABB Venture Capitals, Head of Technology Chart 10. Cyber risk [Scale 1-5] 36% 1 2 3 4 5 12% 48% Not at all (^) considerablyVery 12
Talent The talent requirements and number of skilled workers that Swiss manufacturing industry will need to implement industry 4.0 remains unclear because of uncertainty about the areas where staff is needed, the time required to source talent and the actual numbers. Just 4% of those surveyed said that they already had the skilled workers they needed, while 80% said that they had the skills in certain areas. Only 16% said they completely lacked the necessary skills. The digital transformation to industry 4.0 will bring new challenges for many employees. Creative working processes, such as strategic planning or research and development, will have a greater need for the skills required to identify, introduce and implement the new and innovative business opportunities offered by industry 4.0. New business models and new models for cooperation constitute the real added value of industry 4.0, however, this is not always apparent. Space for creativity needs to be established. This is a challenge for senior management: exploiting the new, innovative business opportunities offered by industry 4.0 is not always easy while running a business on a day-to-day basis. To answer the questions how companies can learn and how change can be managed will be of key importance for senior management. Digitisation increases also the importance of new technical skills, notably in the case of operating activities and mechanical working processes in production, purchasing and warehousing and logistics. New, process-dependent systems making greater use of technology may prove to be a major challenge for existing employees. In some cases, employees require retraining or further training in operating these new applications if they are to make full use of them. In future Swiss manufacturing companies will have to pay even greater attention to developing the competencies of their employees and recruiting a digitally sophisticated workforce. 4% YES 16% NO 80% PARTLY Adequate talent 14
Potential for individual business segments The responses of the Swiss manufacturing companies surveyed showed a very mixed picture in relation to the extent to which individual business segments have already been transformed in line with industry 4.0 criteria and the potential they have to benefit from the digital transformation in future. Current transformation segments When asked which segments had so far undergone the greatest transformation in line with industry 4.0 criteria, companies most frequently cited research and development, with 30% indicating strong transformation and a further 30% very strong transformation (see Chart 11). Further segments that had already undergone strong or very strong transformation included procurement and purchasing (26% and 17% respectively) and production (26% and 9% respectively). This is not necessarily surprising, since all these business segments traditionally embrace new and innovative manufacturing technologies. “Industry 4.0 solutions are often introduced initially in individual production processes and only then repeated in other business segments and processes.“ Robert Rudolph, Swissmem, Head of Training and Innovation Question: Which business segments in your company have undergone the most and the least transformation as part of industry 4.0? 30%35% 30%^ 43% 22% 13% 39% 22% 22% 13% 26% 26%30% 17% 22% 17% 30%22% 26%43% 30% 35% (^) 13% 13% 17% 22% (^) 17%26% 48% 13% 21% 25%^ 21%29% 21% 17% 29% 26% (^) 17% 22% 17%22% 22%17% 13% 39% 14% 14% 27%^ 18% 36% 45% 18% 23% 5 26% 3 4 22%35% 2 17%17% 13% 13% 13% 1 35% Chart 11. Current transformation segments and future potential [Scale 1-5] Research and development No transformation Very strong transformation No potential Very great potential Procurement and purchasing Warehousing and logistics Internal company administration Production Marketing Sales Services Question: Which business segments within your company have the greatest potential to benefit from the digital transformation to industry 4.0? Industry 4.0 Challenges and solutions for the digital transformation and use of exponential technologies 15
Impetus from exponential technologies Emerging and exponential technologies are of great benefit in promoting the digital transformation to industry 4.0. They accelerate change and have the capacity to boost customer focus, individualised production, flexibility and cost savings. Our survey focused on one prime example of such a key technology – additive manufacturing (AM)/3D printing – that has the potential to accelerate the transformation of the Swiss manufacturing industry to industry 4.0. Relevance of 3D printing for manufacturing industry Additive manufacturing is also widely known as 3D printing, with these terms often used interchangeably. The terms refer to a cluster of technologies that produce objects by adding material rather than by mechanically removing or milling material from a solid block. Additive manufacturing involves constructing a product from sequential layers of fine powder or liquid. The materials involved include a range of metals, plastics and composite materials. There are four types of process, each using a different additive process or additive technology:^7
The break-even point is where the two cost curves intersect. At present, conventional manufacturing offers cost advantages when volumes and production runs are high, although this is likely to change. 3D printing is, by contrast, attractive even for small volumes. Special pricing plans for materials and printers may well bring unit costs down in the long term. Further advantages of 3D printing compared with traditional manufacturing are its greater scope for more complex designs, a more rapid market launch (because fewer tools are required and savings can be made on development time) and waste reduction, resulting in a more efficient manufacturing process. Against this backdrop, 3D printing technology is gaining in importance beyond its initial use for producing prototypes and is already in widespread use for small production runs, market launch series and customer-specific solutions. The small number of disadvantages of additive manufacturing, which may continue to constitute advantages for conventional manufacturing, are the high cost of mass production mentioned above, the as yet limited range of printable materials (particularly polymers, metal powders and ceramics) and limitations on the size of the components that can be printed. Chart 12. Break-even analysis of conventional manufacturing and 3D printing Cost per unit manufactured Units manufactured (volume) Greater cost per unit Lower cost per unit Less manufactured units 3D-Printing Conventional manufacturing 3D printing costs start lower as no tooling is required 3D printing Conventionalmanufacturing Lower quantities – 3D printing cost advantage Special pricing plans for material and machines can possibly lower unit costs for 3D printing Higher quantities – conventional manufacturing cost advantage Breakeven- Point More manufactured units 3D printing costs start lower as no tooling is required Lower quantities – 3D printing cost advantage Special pricing plans for material and machines can possibly lower unit costs for 3D printing Higher quantities – conventional manufacturing cost advantage Breakeven- Point “3D printing often means a complete redesign, but the entire process chain needs to be considered, so that time and cost savings at the 3D printing stage do not simply mean more expenditure of time and greater cost at later stages in the process.“ Raphael Urech, Alstom Schweiz, Knowledge Manager Hybrid Parts, Thermal Power Sector “3D printing will become the central production technology once 3D design has been introduced across the board and new products can no longer be manufactured simply by conventional means.“ Marcel Wenzin, agta record ag, Head of Supply Chain Management “To make it a repeatable lean process is the main objective of a successful industrialisation of 3D printing.“ Paul Ryan, Alstom Schweiz, Additive Manufacturing Project Manager, Thermal Power Operations 18