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Strategic Analysis, Study notes of Business Economics

What barriers do the world's 1.8B 10-24 year olds face in becoming productive and engaged members of society? What efforts are being made at a local and ...

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Strategic Analysis
Generation Unlimited
Foundational Documents
Working Document as of 9 July 2019
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Strategic Analysis

Generation Unlimited

Foundational Documents

Working Document as of 9 July 2019

1 Our Approach Methodology for the Strategic Analysis

The strategic analysis provides a high-level review of the challenges facing young people, and
provides an overview of positive efforts and gaps in support of young people at local, national, and
global levels. It is designed to inform the strategic positioning of GenU and provide a review of the
challenges a partnership like GenU would look to address.
The strategic analysis provides an overview of key data on multiple metrics to demonstrate the extent
and breadth of young people challenges. This documents leverages interviews and research to
highlight strengths and gaps in efforts at varying levels of operation. It is therefore comprised of a
summary highlighting key insights, with data and analysis developed to back up each insight.
This strategic analysis is meant to complement existing reports and other GenU documents,^1 rather
than duplicate them. Therefore, it does not include primary research but rather highlights key insights
and provides select illustrative examples.
This document will …
Provide a high-level overview on challenges of
young people to inform GenU strategy
Provide an overview of existing research into
trends and gaps in the provision of services to
support young people, to inform GenU strategy
Conduct high-level overview of global
landscape to inform GenU strategic positioning
in the global architecture
This document will not …
Include primary research on the challenges of
young people in regards to education, skills &
training, and empowerment
Provide an exhaustive review of all global, regional,
and local organizations tackling young people
challenges
Provide a detailed overview of evidence on what
has or what has not worked (Overview of Evidence
deliverable is designed to fulfill this function)
  1. Strategic Analysis is one part of six GenU foundational documents. Findings outlined here are complemented in particular by the Overview of Evidence and Strategy Document

3 Strategic Analysis 3 components of analysis Problem statement Efforts at local and national level Efforts at regional and global level 1 2 3

What barriers do the world’s 1.8B 10-24 year olds face in becoming
productive and engaged members of society?
What efforts are being made at a local and national level to overcome
young people’s challenges? Where are the gaps?
What efforts are being made at a regional and global
level to overcome young people’s challenges? Where are the gaps?

4 “We have an opportunity, particularly in the developing world, to take advantage of their energy, their creativity and their innovation—to develop their economies and societies” “The hopes of the world rest on young people. Peace, economic dynamism, social justice, tolerance—all this and more, today and tomorrow, depends on tapping into the power of youth”

—UNFPA Executive Director

Babatunde Osotimehin

—United Nations Secretary General

Antonio Guterres

6

1.8B

the largest

generation of young

people in history

represents enormous

potential

Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs; Population Division; BCG analysis 400 300 200 100 5 – 9 15 - 19 317 229 Population (M) 70 - 74 40 - 44 Male Over 75 65 - 69 60 - 64 55 - 59 50 - 54 45 - 49 348 35 - 39 20 - 24 30 - 34 25 - 29 10 - 14 0 - 4 100 72 103 281 144 246 168 202 254 313 309 306 333 100 200 300 400 Population (M) Female 142 227 82 202 113 296 151 172 240 247 272 300 292 287 311 325 Age group

A

7 “The success of young people will have huge implications for the world—the youth agenda requires political momentum from the highest levels of global and national leadership” Converting “youth bulges” into “demographic dividends” will require increased productivity and stabilized birth rates

A

Source: UN Population Division; BCG Analysis; BCG Interviews 10 5 0 5 10 0 - 4 5 - 9 10 - 14 15 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 29 30 - 34 35 - 39 45 - 49 50 - 54 55 - 59 60 - 64 65 - 69 70 - 74 75 - 79 80 - 84 85 - 89 90 - 94 95 - 99 100+ 10 5 0 5 10 0 - 4 5 - 9 10 - 14 15 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 29 30 - 34 35 - 39 45 - 49 50 - 54 55 - 59 60 - 64 65 - 69 70 - 74 75 - 79 80 - 84 85 - 89 90 - 94 95 - 99 100+ Africa— 2017

Population: 1.2 billion

Male Female Asia— 2017

Population: 4.5 billion

Male Female

Percentage of population by age group

31% young people 24% young people

9 Young people worldwide have high aspirations for their futures “I would like to test and develop videos games, they have always been my ambition since I was 10 years old” —17 year old male from Egypt “I WANT TO BE A CEO” —19 year old male from Colombia “ I would like to do a high paid government job” —17 year old female from India “ Touring and guiding the tourists wherever they go! And I'm just one to help them wholeheartedly! Of course I like the tourists, I want to be a traveler someday ” —17 year old female from the Philippines BCG survey asked young people^1 Where would you like to be in 5 years time?

A

Representative responses

  1. Source: BCG-conducted survey through U-Report, receiving >10,000 responses across 180 countries; BCG analysis Note: See appendix for additional details on respondent demographics and survey responses
Homemaker In school
Running my
own business
Wage-
earning job
Female
Male

10 However, young people worldwide face barriers in education and training, leading to challenges in employment Population growth trends likely to place additional pressure on youth dynamics, though impact will differ by region Sub-Saharan Africa, with projected 50% increase in 0-24 year olds by 2050, will need to grow employment opportunities at unprecedented rates South Asia, conversely, faces a 40% reduction in young people by 2050 and will need to increase productivity to grow

A
Developing
countries

Unemployment rate, 2017 (%)

Emerging
countries
Developed
countries
Youth All working age

Working poverty rate, 2017 (%)

Emerging
countries
Developing
countries

Note: Youth defined by data source as people aged 15-24; youth figures for 2017 are projections; working poverty rate unavailable for developed countries Source: ILO World Employment Social Outlook 2018; ILO World Employment Social Outlook Trends for Youth 2016; Learning Generation Report; BCG analysis

12 To support young people globally, biggest levers will address NEET, secondary education, and sustainable employment opportunities

Age 15-24 NEET

M

Global 10- 24
Population
Age 10-14 that will
finish lower
secondary school
Age 10-14 that will
drop out of school
Age 15- 24
in-school
Age 15-24 Informal
Employment
Age 15-24 Formal
Employment
Ages 10- 14 Ages 15- 24

Note: NEET rate based on ILO data of Global NEET Rate at 22% of 15-24 year olds Source: UNICEF; World Bank; UNESCO; ILO; BCG Analysis 75% of employed young people are in informal economy

A

950 million young people reached through secondary school transformation

13 Senegal Case Study: Young people's challenges will differ greatly by local context and require specific interventions

Global 10- 24
Population
Age 10-14 that will
drop out of school
Age 15-24 Formal
Employment
Age 10-14 that will Age 15-24 NEET
finish lower
secondary school
Age 15- 24
in-school
Age 15-24 Informal
Employment

K

1, 1, 1,

Ages 10- 24 Ages 10- 14 Ages 15- 24

Note: NEET rate based on ILO data of Global NEET Rate at 22% of 15-24 year olds Source: UNICEF; World Bank; UNESCO; ILO; BCG Analysis

A

~90% of employment in informal economyz ~63% do not finish lower secondary school ~36% NEET rate for 5 - 24 year olds

15 Backup: Within the population of young people, NEET rates also vary by age, geography, and wealth Note: NEET refers to neither in employment, education, nor training; NEET status refers to year prior to survey Source: Young Lives Survey (2016); BCG Analysis

A
Ethiopia India Peru Vietnam

Bottom quintile Top quintile Middle quintile

Ethiopia India Peru Vietnam

Rural Urban

Ethiopia India Peru Vietnam

Age 19 Age 22 NEET rate (%), by wealth quintile NEET rate (%), by geography NEET rate (%), by age

16 Young people are often unable to access decent and quality work opportunities

A
Informal employment, as % of total employment
Adult
Youth
Vulnerable employment, as % of total employment
Male
Female

Source: Global Employment Trends for Youth 2017; ILO; BCG analysis

Self-employment without employees and

employment in contributing family work

are considered vulnerable forms of

employment due to lack of set wages and

high vulnerability to shocks and volatility

Self-employment and wage employment in

the informal economy are not monitored

by governments, and therefore difficult to

reach in interventions

18

Low secondary school completion rates leave many young people unprepared for work and life The nature of work is rapidly changing. Even where young people complete secondary school, they often lack the specific skills required for the modern economy There is a disconnect and lack of transparency between young job-seekers and prospective employers In many places, there are insufficient quality and age-appropriate jobs for young people resulting in unemployment, vulnerable work, or migration to opportunity Many ecosystems are not conducive for young people to become entrepreneurs Many young people are unfairly restricted in their education, learning and employment due to marginalization Young people are insufficiently empowered as problem solvers; many more young people want and need to be engaged in tackling the challenges of the SDGs

C
B

Seven cross-cutting themes to address to unlock young people’s potential to drive economic and social progress

19 Low rates of lower secondary completion in many parts of the world, along with poor learning outcomes Source: UNESCO; World Bank Group; Education Commission Report; BCG analysis

80% 81%^

Niger Rwanda SSA Avg Pakistan World El India Salvador Kenya OECD Avg

Lower secondary school completion rate (2016)

Low-income
countries
Middle-income
countries
High-income
countries

Minimum secondary skills Basic primary level skills only Lack of basic primary skills Projected percentage of children and young people of school age by learning outcome in 2030

264M 1142M 198M

1 Low secondary school completion rates leave many young people unprepared for work and life