Risk Assessment Tools for Sex Offenders: OASys, ARMS, and Thornton's Risk Matrix 2000, Lecture notes of Risk Analysis

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Risk Assessments – OASys, ARMS,

Thornton’s Risk Matrix 2000

MAPPA SMB

OASys – Offender Assessment

System

 OASys is designed to enable a trained and qualified individual, usually a Probation or Prison member of staff to:  Assess how likely an offender is to re offend  Identify and classify offending related needs, including basic personality characteristics and cognitive behavioural problems  Assess risk of serious harm, risks to the individual and other risks  Assist with the management of risk of harm  Links the assessment to the supervision and sentence plan

Criminogenic Needs

Section 1 - 13

 An Offender Manager will assess the following:  Offence / Offending Behaviour / Motivation to Offend  Accommodation  Education, Training and Employment  Finance  Relationships  Lifestyle and Associates  Drug Misuse  Alcohol Misuse

Criminogenic Needs -

continued

 Emotional Well-being  Thinking and Behaviour  Attitudes  Health

Active Risk Management

System - ARMS

 Active Risk Management System (ARMS) is a dynamic risk management framework that draws information together into a risk management plan. It is for the assessment of males who have convictions for sexual/sexually motivated offences who are over the age of 18 years of age. Rather than relying upon historical factors to guide our risk assessment ARMS focuses on the ‘here and now’ and a range of dynamic factors found to be predictive of recidivism or desistence from offending.

ARMS

 ARMS assessments can only be undertaken by Police Staff and Probation Offender Managers, who have successfully completed the National ARMS training course.  It is imperative that an ARMS assessment is undertaken for all adult males, over 18yrs, convicted of sexual offences, who are subject to NPS supervision under the terms of Licence or a Community Order, or in the case of Police managed cases, registered sexual offenders who are subject to sexual offender notification requirements under the SOA 2003. ARMS can also be used to support civil order applications.

ARMS Risk Factors

 Opportunity  Sexual Pre-occupation  Offence Related Sexual interests  Emotional Congruence with Children  Hostile Orientation  Poor Self Management  Anti Social Interests  Lack of Intimate Relationship

ARMS Protective Factors

 Pro Social Network  Commitment to Desist  Intimate Relationship  Employment / Positive Routine  Social Investment

Risk Matrix 2000 (Thornton’s)

 Risk Matrix 2000 (RM2000) is a statistically-derived risk classification process intended for males aged at least 18 who have been convicted of a sexual offence. At least one of these sexual offences should have been committed after the age of 16. It uses simple factual information about offenders’ past history to divide them into categories that differ substantially in their rates of reconviction for sexual or other violent offences. Risk Matrix was developed for use in the United Kingdom. While it is likely to be applicable in other jurisdictions, its scoring rules were tailored to specific features of criminal justice systems prevailing in the United Kingdom.

Risk Matrix Scales

 Risk Matrix 2000 consists of 3 scales. RM2000/S is a prediction scale for sexual offending.  RM2000/V is a prediction scale for non-sexual violence engaged in by sexual offenders.  RM2000/C is a combination of the first two scales and predicts sexual or other violence.

Risk Matrix 2000

 Age at Commencement of Risk  Sexual Appearances  Criminal Appearances

Risk Matrix – Aggravating

Factors

 Sexual Offences against a Male  Sexual Offences against a Stranger  Single (absence of 2 year co-habitation)  Non-Contact Sex Offence (Internet offences do not count if there are no contact offences present)