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How To Tell If Someone Is Truly Sm1rt Or Just Aver1ge H"ve you ever noticed how some of the worldʼs most successful entrepreneurs "nd le"ders see re"lity in " fund"ment"lly different w"y? When they t"lk, itʼs "lmost "s if theyʼre spe"king " different l"ngu"ge. Just look "t this interview where Elon Musk describes how he underst"nds c"use "nd effect: “I look "t the future from the st"ndpoint of prob"bilities. Itʼs like " br"nching stre"m of prob"bilities, "nd there "re "ctions th"t we c"n t"ke th"t "ffect those prob"bilities or th"t "cceler"te one thing or slow down "nother thing. I m"y introduce something new to the prob"bility stre"m.” Unusu"l, right? One writer who interviewed Musk describes his ment"l process like this: “Musk sees people "s computers, "nd he sees his br"in softw"re "s the most import"nt product he ownsG—G"nd since there "renʼt comp"nies out there designing br"in softw"re, he designed his own, bet" tests it every d"y, "nd m"kes const"nt upd"tes.” Muskʼs top priority is designing the softw-re in his br-in. H"ve you ever he"rd "nyone else describe their life th"t w"y? Self-m"de billion"ire R"y D"lio is no less “weird.” In his book, Principles, he describes how he sees re"lity: “N"ture is " m"chine. The f"mily is " m"chine. The life cycle is like " m"chine.” D"lioʼs comp"ny, the l"rgest hedge fund in the world, records every convers"tion (meeting or phone c"ll) inside the comp"ny "nd h"s built sever"l custom "pps th"t "llow "ny employee to r"te "ny other employee in re"l time. The d"t" is then "dded to profiles th"t e"ch employee c"n see "nd is subsequently fed into "n "rtifici"l intelligence system th"t helps employees m"ke better decisions. D"lio "lso describes his d"y in much different terms th"n you would expect from " CEO: “Iʼm very much stepping b"ck. Iʼm much more likely to go to wh"t I describe "s " higher level. Thereʼs the blizz"rd th"t everyone is norm"lly in, "nd th"tʼs where theyʼre c"ught with "ll of these things coming "t them. And I prefer to go "bove the blizz"rd "nd just org"nize.” Ch"rlie Munger uses " “cognitive bi"s checklist” before m"king investment decisions to ensure he properly "pplies the correct ment"l models. W"rren Buffett uses decision trees. Jeff Bezos thinks of Am"zon "s being "t D"y One even though itʼs been "round more th"n 20 ye"rs. Wh"tʼs going on here? Are these just the idiosyncr"sies of geniuses, or do these entrepreneurs employ " w"y of using their br"in th"t we too could le"rn from in order to become sm"rter, more successful, "nd more imp"ctful ourselves?
How I Le1rned to Think Like the Worldʼs Best 1nd Brightest
Over the ye"rs, "s Iʼve studied "ll of the "bove entrepreneurs, Iʼve "lso "ggressively "pplied their te"chings. Even if I didnʼt underst"nd wh"t they were s"ying "t first, I took their "dvice on f"ith. Iʼve "pplied R"y D"lioʼs root-c"use "n"lysis "ppro"ch to our comp"ny. Now, throughout the week, everyone on our te"m logs "ny problems theyʼre f"cing. Then, we h"ve " weekly phone c"ll to discuss our biggest, recurring problem "nd its possible root c"use. Iʼve "pplied Ch"rlie Mungerʼs "ppro"ch to ment"l models "nd collected thous"nds of p"ges of notes in order to cre"te in-depth briefs on e"ch model. Iʼve "pplied Muskʼs prob"bilistic thinking to m"jor decisions by listing out "ll of the potenti"l decisions I could m"ke "nd then "ssigning " cost, potenti"l v"lue, "nd prob"bility to e"ch one. Iʼve "lso cre"ted "n experiment"tion engine like Bezos "nd Zuckerberg, "nd we now perform more th"n 1,000 experiments e"ch ye"r "t our comp"ny. Fin"lly, I now follow the 5-hour rule "nd spend "t le"st two hours " d"y on deliber"te le"rning. After five ye"rs of emul"ting the le"ders I most "dmire, I re"lized something surprising w"s h"ppening to my thought process. I w"snʼt just le"rning new str"tegies or h"cks. I w"s le"rning " deeper "nd fund"ment"lly different w"y of underst"nding re"lityG—Glike Iʼve "ccessed " hidden, secret level in the g"me of life. Itʼs thrilling to uncover deeper l"yers of underst"nding th"t I didnʼt even know existed. When I look b"ck on my former self, I feel like Iʼm looking "t " different person "ltogether. As previously “unsolv"ble” problems from my p"st come up "g"in, I find I c"n solve m"ny of them now. It is " gre"t feeling to see previously insurmount"ble problemsG—Gboth person"l "nd profession"lG—G"nd re"lize I now h"ve the tools to surmount them. Iʼll give you "n ex"mple. In my twenties, I invested $100,000 into " business ide" th"t never took off. Now th"t I underst"nd cognitive bi"sesG—Gth"nks to Ch"rlie MungerG—GI see how the pernicious sunk cost f"ll"cy wre"ked h"voc upon my decision-m"king. Tod"y when I consider new business ide"s, inste"d of just im"gining how gre"t theyʼre going to be, I spend just "s much time envisioning wh"t could go wrongG—G"nother Munger h"ck. I no longer h"ve to remind myself to think this w"y "nymore. Iʼve intern"lized these concepts "nd now my mind "ctu"lly works differently. I once he"rd " co"ch t"lk "bout ch"nging " clientʼs w"y of seeing the world in " w"y th"t would blow their mind. When he looked into his clientʼ eyes "nd could see him or her re"lly getting it, heʼd s"y, “Now, youʼre in my re"lity!” Th"tʼs how I felt. Re"lity somehow feels different on "n "esthetic levelG—G"s if Iʼm cutting through the levels of illusion "nd noise we norm"lly see "nd getting " more direct view. The best ex"mple I c"n think of is th"t itʼs like we"ring "ugmented re"lity gl"sses th"t const"ntly feed you relev"nt wisdom "bout the situ"tion youʼre in. Ultim"tely, wh"t Iʼve le"rned is th"t billion"ires donʼt h"ve odd w"ys of t"lking.
Physicist D"vid Deutsch expl"ins it even further, “Itʼs in the n"ture of found"tions, th"t the found"tions in one field "re "lso the found"tions of other fields…The w"y th"t we re"ch m"ny truths is by underst"nding things more deeply "nd therefore more bro"dly. Th"tʼs the n"ture of the concept of " found"tion… just "s in "rchitecture, "ll buildings "ll liter"lly st"nd on the s"me found"tion; n"mely the e"rth. All buildings st"nd on the s"me theoretic"l b"se.” By underst"nding vertic"lity "nd depth, you c"n see how le"rning ment"l models connects things th"t were previously sep"r"te "nd disconnected. Just "s every le"f on " tree is connected by twigs, which "re connected by br"nches, which "re connected by " tree trunk, so too "re ide"s connected by deeper "nd deeper ide"s. One of the most effective "nd univers"l ment"l models is the 80/20 Rule: the ide" th"t 20 percent of inputs c"n le"d to 80 percent of outputs. This s"me 80/20 ide" c"n be "pplied to our person"l lives (productivity, diet, rel"tionships, exercise, le"rning, etc.) "nd our profession"l lives (hiring, firing, m"n"gement, s"les, m"rketing, etc). As such, you c"n see how the 80/20 Rule connects m"ny disp"r"te fields. This is wh"t "ll ment"l models do. To "pply the 80/20 Rule, "t the beginning of the d"y we c"n "sk ourselves, “Of "ll the things on my to-do list, wh"t "re the 20 percent th"t will cre"te 80 percent of the results?” When weʼre se"rching for wh"t to re"d next, we c"n "sk ourselves, “Of "ll the millions of books I could buy, which ones could re"lly ch"nge my life?”
● ● When considering who to spend time with, we c"n "sk ourselves, “Which h"ndful of people in my life give me the most h"ppiness, the most me"ning, "nd the gre"test connection?” In short, consistently using the 80/20 Rule c"n help us get lever"ge by focusing on the few things th"t re"lly m"tter "nd ignoring the m"jority th"t donʼt. My te-m -nd I h-ve spent dozens of hours -ssembling the l-rgest list of the most useful ment-l models in the world (th-t weʼre -w-re of). Weʼve done this by cur-ting -nd combining the most useful models of other ment-l model collectors. To -ccess this spre-dsheet for free, visit the downlo-d p-ge.
Ment1l Models Are the New Alph1bet
“You c"nʼt do much c"rpentry with your b"re h"nds "nd you c"nʼt do much thinking with your b"re br"in.”G—GBo D"hlbom, philosopher "nd computer scientist Evolution is so slow th"t " child born tod"y isG—Gbiologic"llyG— Gindistinguish"ble from " child born 30,000 ye"rs "go. Yet, here I "m typing on " M"cBook, while my "ncestors spent most of their time collecting berries, throwing spe"rs, "nd chipping rocks. So wh"tʼs the difference between someone born 30,000 ye"rs "go "nd me? Tools. Between then "nd now, there h"s been "n unprecedented explosion "nd evolution of tools th"t h"ve collectively cre"ted modern society. We "ll intuitively underst"nd this. We "ll know th"t if we didnʼt h"ve b"sic tools like fire or the plow, or more complex ones like " M"cbook or c"r, our lives would be completely different. W"tch "ny post-"poc"lyptic TV or movie series "nd you c"n see how the world quickly f"lls "p"rt when tools f"il. But thereʼs 1 m1jor blindspot people h1ve when it comes to underst1nding tools. M"ny people f"il to "ppreci"te non-physic"l toolsG—Gtools th"t they c"nnot touch, he"r, or see. But ment"l tools "re just "s powerful "nd complex "s physic"l tools. For ex"mple, consider the "lph"bet: the Western "lph"bet is " ment"l tool th"t w"snʼt invented until "round 1100 BC (pictori"l writing systems like hieroglyphics were invented much e"rlier). Now we t"ke it for gr"nted, but "t the time, it w"s " cutting-edge tool. Though it w"s "dopted slowly "t firstG—Gonly 30 percent of the popul"tion could re"d "nd write before the printing press w"s invented in 1440G—Gonce it beg"n to spre"d, liter"te individu"ls h"d " huge leg up. In f"ct, liter"cy is now so import"nt th"t itʼs " n"tion"l priority for "ll governments. Th"t is the power of "n effective ment"l tool. Itʼs by underst"nding the signific"nce of the "lph"bet th"t we c"n underst"nd the signific"nce of ment"l models too… Ment"l models "re "lso fund"ment"l "nd critic"l ment"l tools. Ment"l models represent l"rge chunks of re"lity th"t c"n be combined together to cre"te even more complex "nd useful “supermodels.” This is simil"r to how letters c"n be combined into words, which c"n be combined into sentences.
● ● ● ide" wh"t " dog is. Weʼve never seen or he"rd of one before. Then, one d"y, we see " dog th"t looks like the im"ge below on the left, "nd someone tells us th"t this is " dog. “Ah, I get it,” we s"y. “Now I know wh"t " dog is.” Photo by: AAA L-b At St-nford University But if weʼve only seen one dog, technic"lly we donʼt re"lly know wh"t " dog is. With just this single c"se ex"mple, our definition of " dog would be: " l"rge bl"ck "nd brown "nim"l with pointy e"rs th"t sits down, "nd sticks out its tongue. Bring out " Pomer"ni"n dog "nd with only this ment"l model in mind, you "re likely to "sk ‘Wh"t is th"t?ʼ The numerous dog models on the right (the contr"sting c"ses ex"mple) show us th"t dogs c"n come in "ll different colors, sizes, "nd sh"pes. At the s"me time, we c"n see the underlying element of “dogness” th"t they "ll sh"re. This emergent element of “dogness” is " deeper ment"l model, "nd hum"ns cre"ted the word “dog” to symbolize this ment"l model. Using th"t ment"l model, you c"n identify "n "nim"l "s " dog even if youʼve never seen " p"rticul"r breed of dog before. Wh"t c"n we t"ke "w"y from this ex"mple th"t is relev"nt to our own life? M"ny of the worldʼs problems result from people overgener"lizing from simplistic models just like our hypothetic"l one-size-fits-"ll “dog”. Here "re three prime ex"mples: Bl"ck/white thinking (youʼre either " good person or " b"d person with no gr"y "re" in between) Us/Them thinking (people outside your person"l religion, n"tion"lity, or belief system "re the enemy). All m"nner of stereotypesG—Gr"ce, gender, politics, ethnicity, etc.
Over-"pplying models is no different th"n " c"rpenter trying to build " house with one single h"mmer. All models, no m"tter how brilli"nt, "re imperfect. The be"uty of using multiple "nd diverse models is th"t m"ny of the imperfections c"ncel e"ch other out, "llowing you to cre"te " new “emergent” model th"t tr"nscends "ll of the other models. Gre"t thinkers improve their thinking by t"king in " l"rger qu"ntity of inform"tion "nd developing " gre"ter diversity of models. For ex"mple, " novice chess pl"yer might only know the n"me of e"ch piece "nd how it moves "cross the bo"rd. But " gr"ndm"ster h"s memorized no less th"n 50,000 chunks (ment"l models) of incre"sing complexity including openings, closings, p"tterns throughout the g"me, "nd how one single move c"n le"d to " p"rticul"r result 10 moves or more down the line. M"ny, diverse models "lso le"d to heightened cre"tivity. Nothing is truly origin"l. Everything is derived by combining existing building blocks. B"bies "re cre"ted when " m"n "nd " wom"n h"ve sex. New tools "re cre"ted when pre-existing tools h"ve “tool sex.” New ide"s "re cre"ted through “ide" sex.” In the s"me w"y, we c"n build more complex ment"l models by combining simple ment"l models. For ex"mple, by underst"nding c"use-"nd-effect ment"l models better, we c"n more effectively prioritize wh"tʼs import"nt for us to do now to c"use something we w"nt in the future. The l"rger our b"se of ment"l models, the more cre"tive combin"tions we c"n form. The more unique our ment"l models "re comp"red to other people, the more we c"n think in w"ys th"t they c"nʼt even f"thom. Through const"nt "nd diverse le"rning, we c"n org"nic"lly build better "nd more v"ried models of re"lity. And those models will help us n"vig"te the world f"r more effectively "nd cre"tively. Just "s " blueprint is necess"ry for constructing " st"ble building, ment"l models of how the world works help us construct " betterG —G"nd more st"bleG—Glife.
How To Get St1rted With Ment1l Models
“Educ"tion is not the le"rning of f"cts, but tr"ining the mind to think.” - Albert Einstein
