Monitoring & Evaluating Agri & Rural Development: Indicators & Data in Challenging Conditi, Slides of Human Development

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1

WYE CITY GROUP MEETING

ON STATISTICS ON RURAL DEVELOPMENT AND

AGRICULTURE HOUSEHOLD INCOME ,

PRESENTATION OUTLINE

1. Agriculture and Rural Development Policy Issues in

Developing Countries and M&E framework for

tracking Results

2. The analytical framework

3. The Indicators

4. The data framework

5. Capacity of National Statistical Systems

1. ARD POLICY ISSUES AND M&E FRAMEWORK

• Sector-wide approach (SWAP) to ARD Programmes  growing demand for verifiable evidence of the results and impacts of development programs.
• Most indicators are focused on performance and relate mainly to inputs and outputs (used to populate management information systems).
• Results indicators have become increasingly prominent in the wake of recent international resolutions such as the Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness in 2005 and the Monterrey Consensus on Financing for Development in 2002.
• Emphasis on aid effectiveness and results-based development  need to demonstrate the impacts of their projects and programs  shifted the focus of M&E from a concentration on inputs and outputs to a concentration on outcomes and impacts.
• To measure outcomes and impacts imply the use of indicators that are based on reliable data, and on the capacity to systematically collect and analyze that information.
• In most developing countries conditions are “less-than-ideal.” Information is irregular and often lacking altogether.
• Strengthening capacity for M&E begins at the national and sub-national levels, where addressing the weaknesses of national statistical systems is a common priority.

1. ARD POLICY ISSUES AND M&E FRAMEWORK

The ideal environment for establishing a good M&E system is where:

1. there is a strong and consistent _demand for information.

2. the concept of "management by_ _results" is widely practised.
3. timely and relevant information is_ being systematically used to improve decision-making and to advance the process of _development.
4. systems are in place to ensure_ that reliable and relevant data and information are available when needed.

The less-than-ideal condition , on the other hand, is where:

1. demand for information is _weak.

2. evidence is not used to inform_ _decision-making.
3. the stock and flow of timely_ information are irregular and unreliable and statistical capacity is weak.

3. INDICATORS

Difficulties with the measurement of agricultural output

Ethiopia maize yields:1996-

15000

15500

16000

16500

17000

17500

18000

18500

19000

19500

20000

1996199719981999200020012002200320042005

Yields (Kg/ha)

Target Actual

Detecting a trend in maize yields

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3. INDICATORS

Frequency of Monitoring various Indicators

Impact Indicators

(Ultimate goal)

Outcome Indicators

(behavioral change)

Output Indicators

(Goods and Services)

Input Indicators

(Material, financial, human)

Medium to Long Run (maybe 5 years by the time surveys are carried out)

Medium Term - Ideally annually – maybe every 2 – 3 years

Short – Medium Term - Ideally more than once a year or annually

Short Term - Ideally every three months or annually

Issues – Cost and Capacity

3. INDICATORS

COUNTRY VALIDATIONS

 Countries : Cambodia, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Senegal, Tanania

 Purpose : Test the conceptual framework and a preliminary list of

indicators against country capacity (M&E and Statistics), practice and learn lessons

 Findings

 All countries are engaged in strengthening and rationalising the national

M&E System in parallel with Statistical reform (NSDS)

 Countries are at different stages regarding M&E and statistical

development (Examples of Senegal and Tanzania)

 Disconnect between M&E and Statistical System

 Outcome : Revised list of indicators, framework and good practices

 Emerging Issues and challenges :

 Decentralization and devolution=>implication for M7E and Stat system

 Linkage and articulation between M&E and Statistics system

 Linkages with international agencies

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3. INDICATORS

Results of the country validation studies

Subsector Total indicators

No. of generic indicators currently available

Cambodia Nicaragua Nigeria Senegal

The United Republic of Tanzania A. Core ARD sector indicators 28 8 7 9 8 3

B. Agribusiness and market development 13 2 4 4 3 3 C. Community-based rural development 9 2 4 2 D. Fisheries (aquaculture) 6 3 3 1 1 E. Forestry 13 5 3 3 5 3 F. Livestock 8 5 5 7 6 2 G. Policies and institutions 18 6 11 11 7 6 H. Research and extension 7 4 3 4 I. Rural Finance 7 5 5 4

J. Sustainable land and crop management 9 6 6 5 2

K. Water resource management 13 1 7 3 6 4 Total 131 40 56 56 38 27

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3. INDICATORS Nineteen priority indicators (MAIN CRITERIA USED: RELEVANCE, COMPARABILITY, AVAILABILITY )

1 Public spending on agriculture as a % of GDP from agriculture sector

11 % of the rural population using financial services of formal banking institutions 2 Public spending on agricultural input subsidies as a percentage of total public spending on agriculture

12 Public investment in agricultural research as a % of GDP from agriculture sector 3 Prevalence (%) of underweight children under five years of age in rural areas

13 Irrigated land as a % of crop land

4 Food production index 14 % change in sales/ turnovers of agro- enterprises 5 % annual growth in agricultural value added

15 % of farmers who are members of producer organizations 6 Rural poor as a proportion of total poor population

16 Agricultural withdrawal as % of total freshwater withdrawal 7 % change in yields of major crops of the country

17 Proportion (%) of land area formally establishes as protected area 8 % annual growth in value added in the livestock sub-sector

18 % change in soil loss from watersheds 9 Capture fish production as % of existing stock ( or a rating of state of major capture fish stocks relevant to exports and local food)

19 % land area for which there exists a legally recognized form of land tenure

10 Proportion of land area covered by forest (%) (see: menu of 86 indicators.doc)

4. DATA FRAMEWORK : Sources of data

Inputs Outputs Outcomes Impacts

Administrative information systems

Survey Programme of the CSO or MoA (Population census, Agricultural census, LSMS, DHS..)

Participatory Poverty Assessments

Financial Management Tools

4. DATA FRAMEWORK

• Applying the tools for M&E analysis
  • Comparisons over time
    • Baseline surveys
    • Panel surveys
  • Comparisons over space
  • Counterfactual comparisons (with and without)
• Does the National Statistical System have the

capacity to deliver?

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Comparison of key features of different surveys

1 2 3 4 5 Best used for :

Sample size Duration

Visits to household

Question- naire size Cost ($m)

Time series Sub- nat'l

Counter- factual

Population census Full coverage 3-6 months 1 4-8 15-25 ^ ^ 

Agricultural census 20 000-50 000 1-1.5 years 2-4 5-12 5-10 ^ ^ 

LSMS/integrated survey 5 000-10 000 1-1.5 years 2 40+ 1-2 ^ ^ 

Household budget survey 4 000-10 000 1-1.5 years 15-25 15-20 1-2 ^ ^ 

Community survey 100-500 4-6 months 1 4-6 0.2-0.4 ^ ^ 

Service delivery survey (CWIQ) 10 000-15 000 2-3 months 1 8 0.2-0.4 ^ ^ 

Focus group interviews 40-50 2-3 months 1-3 - 0.05-0.1 ^ ^ 

Windscreen survey 10-20 2-3 weeks 0 0.01 ^ ^ 

=not suitable =adequate =good

4. DATA FRAMEWORK

5. CAPACITY OF NATIONAL STATISTICAL SYSTEMS

Opportunities

 growing interest in the monitoring and evaluation of national development programmes=>growing interest in the rehabilitation of the NSS

 NSDS process

 Global strategy will provide:

• the framework to integrate a core set of agricultural and rural statistics into the national and international statistical systems,
• identify a suite of methodologies for the data collection, provide a framework for integrating agricultural and rural statistics with the overlapping data requirements of other sectors, and address the need to improve statistical capacity.
• propose a governance structure for coordination not only between the national statistical organisations and other country ministries, but also between national statistical organisations of other countries, donors, and regional and international organisations.

 Global Strategy to be discussed by senior experts during the upcoming International Statistical Institute Satellite meeting to be held 13-14 August 2009 in Maputo, Mozambique

A Sourcebook of indicators for monitoring and evaluation

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TRACKING RESULTS IN

AGRICULTURE AND RURAL

DEVELOPMENT

IN LESS-THAN-IDEAL CONDITIONS